{"id":11122,"date":"2022-10-15T12:00:52","date_gmt":"2022-10-15T12:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/?p=11122"},"modified":"2022-11-29T07:44:25","modified_gmt":"2022-11-29T07:44:25","slug":"cbbcs-predictions-for-chinas-20th-party-congress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/cbbcs-predictions-for-chinas-20th-party-congress\/","title":{"rendered":"How to understand China’s 20th Party Congress"},"content":{"rendered":"

Predicting Chinese leadership changes is notoriously difficult, and China watchers have to rely on scraps of public information to gauge the chances of Chinese politicians to make it to the top. Whatever happens at the 20th Party Congress, the most fundamental rule of \u2018China watching\u2019 remains to focus on actions rather than words<\/h2>\n

The quinquennial National Party Congresses are among the most important events in China\u2019s political system. They also allow China watchers all around the globe to engage in their favourite pastime: speculating about leadership changes within the Chinese Communist Party. As seasoned \u2013 and not so seasoned \u2013 analysts are sharing their predictions about the composition of the Standing Committee of the Politburo \u2013 the current seven-man-strong leadership group which decides the fate of the world\u2019s second-largest economy \u2013 here\u2019s a brief guide for businesses and hobby Pekinologists in the arcane art of tea leaf reading.<\/p>\n

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Background<\/h4>\n

The National Party Congress (NPC) of the Chinese Communist Party \u2013 which takes place every five years \u2013 is undoubtedly the most important event in China\u2019s political calendar. Unlike the National People\u2019s Congress, which happens every year, the Party congress does not pass laws and regulations. It does, however, include speeches by senior Party leaders on the country\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n

What makes the NPC so important is that it selects the Communist Party\u2019s leadership for the coming five-year period, thus determining who runs the country. And in a political system such as China\u2019s, personnel is key.<\/p>\n

On the surface, the selection of the top leadership is a democratic bottom-up process that starts well before the opening ceremony of the National Congress in October. Local Party committees select their delegates for the next level up, with provincial-level congresses deciding who to send to the national one in Beijing. In reality, however, candidate lists are determined by the Party\u2019s powerful organisation department, currently headed by Xi-ally Chen Xi \u2013 himself a potential candidate for the Party\u2019s highest governing body, the Standing Committee of the Politburo (PBSC).<\/p>\n