{"id":14006,"date":"2024-04-30T06:30:55","date_gmt":"2024-04-30T06:30:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/?p=14006"},"modified":"2024-04-30T07:42:01","modified_gmt":"2024-04-30T07:42:01","slug":"why-isnt-chinas-emissions-growth-slowing-like-its-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/why-isnt-chinas-emissions-growth-slowing-like-its-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Why isn\u2019t China\u2019s emissions growth slowing like its GDP?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite slowing GDP growth, China\u2019s coal consumption is on the up, writes Dialogue Earth<\/a> (formerly China Dialogue)’s Xia Zhijian<\/strong>. But could growth in coal production and use over the past two years actually bring about an\u00a0earlier\u00a0carbon peak?<\/h3>\n

Following the emergence of Covid-19 and its impacts, China put a strong emphasis on coal power and energy-intensive heavy industry to secure energy security and GDP growth. This has put it a long way off reaching its 2025 targets for energy intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP).<\/p>\n

How can China ensure these decisions do not make it more difficult to\u00a0achieve\u00a0peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060? In conversation with Dialogue Earth, experts recommend tougher controls on coal, reforms to electricity markets, and more rigorous management of energy supply and demand.<\/p>\n

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Mission almost-impossible<\/h4>\n

China\u2019s five-year economic plan for 2021-2025 set 20 binding targets, including a 13.5% fall in energy intensity and an 18% fall in carbon intensity (carbon emitted per unit of GDP). Meeting these would have required annual falls of 2.8% and 3.9%, respectively.<\/p>\n

In late 2023, the chair of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zheng Zhajie, said falls in both energy and carbon intensity had been less than expected. According to a recent bulletin from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), energy intensity fell only 2.5% in 2023, while carbon intensity held steady.<\/p>\n

Energy intensity fell by 2.7% in 2021, and carbon intensity by 3.8%, according to Dialogue Earth\u2019s calculations. However falls in 2022 were only 0.1% and 0.8%.<\/p>\n

Zheng Zhajie did not give specific figures in his speech. However, Dialogue Earth\u2019s calculations using the NBS bulletin show cumulative falls since 2020 of 3.3% in energy intensity and 4.6% in carbon intensity. Meeting its 2025 targets will, therefore, now require China to achieve two annual falls of 10.5% in energy intensity and 14% in carbon intensity from 2023 levels.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not possible to have carbon intensity and energy intensity fall that far in two years,\u201d says Dr Yang Fuqiang, a research fellow at Peking University\u2019s Institute of Energy. \u201cThere is no doubt the targets will be missed.\u201d<\/p>\n

The recently published 2024 Government Work Report has set a target for reducing energy intensity by 2.5% this year. \u201cWe\u2019re too far behind to get back on track overnight easily, so a 2.5% target for the year was set,\u201d Yang tells Dialogue Earth. \u201cAll we can do is try to get back on track in the time remaining.\u201d<\/p>\n