{"id":4951,"date":"2017-06-19T12:57:49","date_gmt":"2017-06-19T11:57:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/?p=4951"},"modified":"2025-04-23T10:23:11","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T10:23:11","slug":"tom-miller-explains-the-chinese-global-goals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/tom-miller-explains-the-chinese-global-goals\/","title":{"rendered":"Tom Miller explains the Chinese global goals"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tom Miller spent three years travelling around Asia researching his book China\u2019s Asian Dream. Here he explains the far-reaching effects of China\u2019s ambitious global goals<\/h1>\n

To what extent is the Belt and Road initiative already benefiting the economy of China?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

It is still very early days, as the initiative was only announced in late 2013 and its success can only be judged in 10 or 20 years\u2019 time.<\/p>\n

Having said that, there are a few indicators we can look at. At home, the Belt and Road appear to have brought new infrastructure investment, especially new roads and railways over China\u2019s western borders. But the truth is that much of this investment would have happened anyway, so it cannot really be attributed to the initiative. Sceptics would also point out that yet more debt-fueled investment isn\u2019t necessarily what China needs.<\/p>\n

It is easier to look at the progress overseas. Here the aim is to place China at the centre of a trade and investment nexus stretching across Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. Specifically, Beijing hopes state commodity producers, engineering firms and capital goods makers will find a lucrative new source of growth. It views the Belt and Road initiative as a lifeline for indebted firms suffering from weak demand at home and looking to export their overcapacity. It also calculates that better transport connections will bring prosperity to its own underdeveloped border region by transforming them into viable regions.<\/p>\n

Official rhetoric exaggerates the potential of the Belt and Road to absorb industrial overcapacity. It is plausible that China could finance US$50-100 billion of overseas projects per year \u2013 but if you consider that China\u2019s domestic infrastructure spending was running at about US$150 billion per month<\/em> in 2015, it becomes immediately apparent that overseas construction demand will only be marginal. What government data do show are that Chinese firms signed construction contracts worth US$189 billion and earned revenues of US$145 billion in 60-odd Belt and Road countries in 2015-16. Some planned projects will not come to fruition, but the numbers are substantial and will probably grow.<\/p>\n

Has that had a trickle-down effect in other countries or will much of the revenues generated go back to China?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Many of the construction revenues will go to Chinese construction companies and capital goods exporters. Some loans by the Chinese will be made on the condition that the recipient spends the money on Chinese goods. But China is also adamant that the Belt and Road is open to all, and it has specifically said it is willing to work with everyone. The extent to which that happens will vary from country to country. In Sri Lanka, almost all the diggers I saw at Colombo Port City were Japanese or South Korean, not Chinese.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s initiative will also have to dovetail with other national and sub-regional efforts, where the World Bank and ADB [Asian Development Bank] lend funds and construction firms from other countries will play a role. Chinese construction also employ local workers, while new ports and industrial zones also create jobs for locals. So there is truth in Beijing\u2019s contention that its infrastructure push can benefit all sides.<\/p>\n

Britain has just sent its first freight train to China along a Belt and Road corridor. Do you think the Belt and Road initiative is having direct benefits to Britain\u2019s economy?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The UK sees the initiative as an opportunity for commercial cooperation, which explains why it was so keen to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. China claims that the initiative is open to all \u2013 the theme of the recent Belt and Road Forum was \u201cinterconnected development\u201d and \u201cinternational coordination\u201d \u2013 and the UK is keen to work with Chinese firms in third countries. There could be opportunities in infrastructure, financial and professional services, agriculture and the environment, advanced manufacturing, transport and logistics, and energy and resources. The City could play a role in financing projects and, potentially, issuing RMB bonds.<\/p>\n

Does Trump\u2019s lack of experience in Asia (and, for example, his cancelling of the Trans-Pacific Partnership) give China the chance to dominate the region further?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Yes. The\u00a0decision to bin the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which\u00a0would have anchored the US\u2019s economic and diplomatic presence in Asia,\u00a0brings China a step closer\u00a0to becoming\u00a0the undisputed regional power.\u00a0If the US continues to weaken its\u00a0economic leadership\u00a0in Asia, China will step up its efforts in order to fill the void. China is a strong supporter of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, an alternative free-trade vision to TPP that encompassing the 10 ASEAN countries and their six FTA [free-trade agreement] partners: India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and, crucially, China. Unless\u00a0Trump comes up with\u00a0policies that enhance rather than diminish Asia\u2019s economic security,\u00a0Asian states may have little alternative other than to seek a closer relationship with\u00a0Beijing.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Do we see China\u2019s rise as the end of a singular global power and the start of a multi-polar era of power?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

I don\u2019t have a crystal ball but if Xi Jinping\u2019s plans are realised, the 21st<\/sup> century will be dominated by two superpowers: China and the US.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s Asian Dream<\/a>: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road, by Tom Miller is out now with Zen Books.\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tom Miller spent three years travelling around Asia researching his book China\u2019s Asian Dream. Here he explains the far-reaching effects of China\u2019s ambitious global goals To what extent is the Belt and Road initiative already benefiting the economy of China? It is still very early days, as the initiative was only announced in late 2013 and its success can only be judged in 10 or 20 years\u2019 time. Having said…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5053,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[209,126],"tags":[155,367,565,222,2427,1969],"class_list":["post-4951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bri","category-infrastructure","tag-bri","tag-economy","tag-globalisation","tag-infrastructure","tag-paywall","tag-tom-miller"],"yoast_head":"\nTom Miller explains the Chinese global goals - Focus - China Britain Business Council<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Author Tom Miller explains how the Belt and Road shows China's global ambitions and how it plans to execture them\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/tom-miller-explains-the-chinese-global-goals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tom Miller explains the Chinese global goals - 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