{"id":6261,"date":"2020-11-09T06:01:05","date_gmt":"2020-11-09T06:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/?p=6261"},"modified":"2025-04-23T10:00:10","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T10:00:10","slug":"jim-mcgregor-on-the-us-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/jim-mcgregor-on-the-us-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Jim McGregor provides an update on his take on the US election"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Jim McGregor, chairman of APCO Worldwide\u2019s Greater China region and longtime China resident, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=nTWCfd8iQJk&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">gives <a href=\"http:\/\/cbbc.org\">CBBC<\/a> his view<\/a> on the upcoming US election and the implications for US-China relations.<\/h2>\n<p>At the time of writing, the final result of the US election remains in the balance. The future of US-China relations will be a top foreign policy priority for whoever emerges victorious.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Biden Win<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In the event of the most likely outcome: a victory for Democratic candidate Joe Biden.<\/p>\n<h4>Broad policy<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>McGregor expects Biden\u2019s approach to foreign policy to be <strong>much more multilateral<\/strong>, going back to the norms of foreign policy.<\/li>\n<li>Biden has a <strong>\u2018Buy American\u2019 policy<\/strong> that appears in part to be a response to Beijing\u2019s \u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 effort, with a plan to put $400 billion towards US government procurement of US products, and to invest $300 billion in technologies such as quantum computation, 5G, and artificial intelligence.<\/li>\n<li>A Biden administration will impose a <strong>10% surtax on American corporations that move offshore to sell products back to the US<\/strong>. \u201cIt is interesting that this doesn\u2019t go after US companies that are in China to sell to the China market.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>On <strong>tariffs<\/strong>: Biden has been negative about them, but McGregor says: \u201cI don\u2019t see him giving them up any time soon.\u201d Many in Congress understand that tariffs are paid by US consumers and businesses, so there could be a reckoning: \u201cBut they also serve as <strong>real leverage<\/strong> with China, and you don\u2019t want to drop your leverage.\u201d<br \/>\nJim expects Biden\u2019s policy to be \u201cmuch <strong>more focused on human rights<\/strong> than the Trump administration has been.\u201d This will inform policy towards <strong>Hong Kong<\/strong>, although the administration will also not want to \u201cpunish the Hong Kong people\u201d with excessive sanctions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Biden-Xi relations<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Biden spent a lot of time with Xi Jinping when he was vice president under Barack Obama; given anti-China sentiment in the US, \u201che has had to be defensive about that in the campaign.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Still, in the past, Biden has talked about the importance of the US-China relationship and the fact that the two countries have to get along.<\/li>\n<li>Biden has probably spent <strong>more time with Xi<\/strong> than any other US official having travelled with him both in the US and China.<\/li>\n<li>But he will want a<strong> \u201creal dialogue\u201d<\/strong> with Xi: \u201cThey\u2019re not going to listen to a lot of nonsense.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>China is going to have to <strong>climb down on its wolf warrior strategy <\/strong>in order to engage.<\/li>\n<li>There is one bilateral issue in Washington on which all agree and that is that <strong>China is a bad guy<\/strong>. \u201cYou say something nice about China in Washington these days, and you\u2019ll be called a traitor. It\u2019s really got that dark.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>The US attitude is that many feel <strong>betrayed by China<\/strong>. There is a strong feeling that the US opened up its universities, markets and so to China, but that this goodwill has not been reciprocated. \u201cThis is the strong American attitude, and I understand that.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>There is a strong feeling in Congress that the<strong> US needs to be tougher in enforcing international rules<\/strong> on China when it goes beyond its borders, with less emphasis on \u201csitting round a negotiating table trying to persuade China to change its model.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>A big question for Chinese entrepreneurs now is whether they will be able to build big international companies, given the Communist Party\u2019s moves to be more involved in private businesses and China\u2019s ability to request data from them. \u201cThere\u2019s this <strong>distrust of China Inc<\/strong>, and distrust of the Chinese government.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><strong>Biden policy advisers<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Influential people who are likely to shape US policy on China under Biden include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tony Blinken \u2013 a former Deputy National Security Adviser. He has talked about the importance of <strong>reciprocity<\/strong> in US-China relations.<\/li>\n<li>Samantha Power \u2013 a possible Secretary of State. She has said that if you succumb to China\u2019s bullying and intimidation, you can expect only one thing \u2013 more of the same. Like many former Obama administration people, she is now taking<strong> a harder line on China<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Lael Brainard \u2013 possible Treasury Secretary. She has said China\u2019s economy is now too large for it to pick and choose which rules it will follow.<\/li>\n<li>Ely Ratner \u2013 a key advisor who has said the China challenge is more about the US and its competitiveness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><strong>A return to multilateralism?<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Biden may push for a revival of the Iran nuclear deal, and for the US to re-enter the Paris climate deal.<\/li>\n<li>He will <strong>\u201cstop the destruction\u201d<\/strong> of the WTO, but will push for reform to make it less easy for China to play rivals off against each other. \u201cWe do need a strong multilateral trade organisation, and China needs it as much as anyone.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Biden has also talked about forming a <strong>group of democracies<\/strong> partly in an effort to withstand China. There will be a \u201clot less worry\u201d in Washington that this might offend China.<\/li>\n<li>Under Biden, the US may look to rejoin the <strong>CPTPP<\/strong>, but it may be hard to get back in. Withdrawing from the deal may have been the \u201cdumbest thing the US has done since invading Iraq. It was so upsetting to those countries, they\u2019re going to extract a big price to let us back in \u2013 and they should.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Biden is likely to be careful in his approach towards <strong>Taiwan<\/strong>. There is a lot of support in the US Congress for the US to pursue a free trade agreement with Taiwan, while Biden may support its entry into bodies such as WHO.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><strong>US Business Community<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>McGregor was among those who helped to push for China\u2019s entry into the WTO. \u201cBut China changed, first under Hu and Wen in their latter years, and then under Xi Jinping.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>McGregor believes China is now going through a period of<strong> \u2018reform and closing\u2019<\/strong>, in contrast to the post-1978 \u2018reform and opening up\u2019 period. Beijing is focusing on reforming its own companies, but closing up to foreign companies that it can replace.<\/li>\n<li>US multinationals do still \u201c<strong>need to be in China<\/strong>: If they are not in China they are going to lose out globally \u2013 you\u2019ve got to be a player in China. You can\u2019t not be there.\u201d Most US companies are in China for the China market, and those companies are doubling down.<\/li>\n<li>Under Beijing\u2019s new \u2018dual circulation\u2019 strategy, China may give <strong>more opportunities to companies in the tech and retail sectors<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>But companies have to go in with <strong>both eyes open<\/strong>. China \u201cwill welcome you \u2013 but it\u2019s not their goal to have you there for the long term. To quote Mao Zedong, China will \u2018Use the past to serve the present, let foreigners serve China.\u2019\u201d<\/li>\n<li>US business wants to be allowed to carry on operating in China, \u201cbut <strong>they also are going to have to show they care about the United States and are investing in the US at the same time.<\/strong>\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Doing business in China \u201cused to be like <strong>all-star wrestling<\/strong>. You got bounced around, but never really got hurt bad with no lasting damage. Now it\u2019s like<strong> UFC<\/strong> \u2013 where it\u2019s much more brutal and you can get hurt bad.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Jim\u2019s advice: \u201cYou\u2019ve got to really <strong>pay attention to policy<\/strong> \u2013 that\u2019ll help you get through the minefield and you might even find opportunities.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>Trump Win<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>A second Trump term may see a <strong>somewhat softer approach<\/strong> towards China.<\/li>\n<li>Trump will be focused on building back the US economy for a second time. If he\u2019s going to do that, he\u2019s going to need China. <strong>US companies have to be in China<\/strong>, and have to have good market share there.<\/li>\n<li>Trump <strong>\u201cwon\u2019t need China any more to beat up.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0He\u2019ll start being nice to Xi Jinping again, start buttering him up.<\/li>\n<li>China hawks such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, or US trade representative Robert Lighthizer may drop out of the administration or be more marginalised in a second term. Matt Pottinger, who has been responsible for much of Trump\u2019s approach towards China, has already said he will leave the administration.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><strong>Advice for the UK and UK business<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>McGregor urges the UK not to return to the \u2018golden era\u2019 of UK-China relations: \u201cChina doesn\u2019t respect anyone who sucks up,\u201d he said.<\/li>\n<li>Post-Brexit Britain may be seen as \u201cripe hanging fruit among Western democracies\u201d by China, but we should not let ourselves be intimidated. \u201cYou\u2019ve got to be careful about putting yourself in a subservient position to China.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Britain has a strong reputation in areas such as tech, science and finance, and we should emphasise those qualities in doing business in China, while realising that \u201cChina\u2019s goal is to learn what you do and then do it themselves.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Business should learn a lesson form Xi, who is preparing China for long term hostility from the outside world.<\/li>\n<li>\u201cYou\u2019ve got to try to make yourself sanction-proof. But you have to look at the cost \u2013 are you making enough money in China to cover the cost of sanctions preparation?\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For more information on China policy contact torsten.weller@cbbc.org<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jim McGregor, chairman of APCO Worldwide\u2019s Greater China region and longtime China resident, gives CBBC his view on the upcoming US election and the implications for US-China relations. At the time of writing, the final result of the US election remains in the balance. The future of US-China relations will be a top foreign policy priority for whoever emerges victorious. Biden Win In the event of the most likely outcome:&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":6262,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132],"tags":[2427,333,704,681,2065],"class_list":["post-6261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-paywall","tag-politics","tag-trade-war","tag-trump","tag-us"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Jim McGregor provides an update on his take on the US election - Focus - China Britain Business Council<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jim McGregor gives his take on what the US election will mean for relations with China and the future of trade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/jim-mcgregor-on-the-us-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jim McGregor provides an update on his take on the US election - 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