![\"\"](\"https:\/\/focus.cbbc.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Screenshot-2020-12-01-at-10.37.54.png\")
<\/p>\nUnusually, the proposal does not include specific economic growth targets. However, it does provide more details about the Chinese leadership\u2019s principal areas of concern over the economy\u2019s future path.<\/p>\n
The key takeaway: The proposal confirms our initial assessment that the government\u2019s Dual Circulation Strategy \u2013 that is the strengthening of China\u2019s own consumer market paired with the technological upgrading of its manufacturing sector \u2013 will be central to the 14th Five Year Plan (FYP).<\/p>\n
As mentioned above, the 14th FYP documents that have been published so far contain no specific economic growth targets. Nonetheless, in a commentary on the 5th Plenum\u2019s decisions, Xi Jinping expressed confidence that China could double the size of its economy by 2035.<\/p>\n
What does that aim imply for China\u2019s future growth?<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
China\u2019s GDP last year topped RMB 99 trillion (\u00a311.4 trillion). The communiqu\u00e9 issued after the 5th Plenum noted that Chinese leaders expect the economy to pass the RMB 100 trillion threshold this year. Xi\u2019s statement also links up to China\u2019s previous objective of doubling the economy between 2010 and 2020, a goal which it will almost certainly achieve given that China\u2019s GDP ten years ago was only RMB 40 trillion (\u00a34.6 trillion).<\/p>\n
UK goods exports will undoubtedly benefit from further economic growth and the increasing purchasing power of Chinese consumers<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
A further doubling of the economy\u2019s size by 2035 implies China\u2019s growth over the next decade-and-a-half will be lower than the average of 6.4% per annum over the last decade, at around 4.75% per annum. This is largely in line with recent projections by the IMF, which predicts an average annual growth of 6.2% between 2021 and 2025<\/a>.<\/p>\n
If this growth rate comes to pass it would mean China growing by the equivalent of Turkey\u2019s current annual output each year out to 2035.<\/p>\n
The domestic market and Dual Circulation Strategy<\/h3>\n
China\u2019s leaders are hoping that growth over the next five years will largely stem from domestic consumption and high-quality service industries, in contrast to the last decade, when labour-intensive export industries and infrastructure investment were the economy\u2019s biggest drivers.<\/p>\n
In order to boost domestic spending, the Chinese government plans to implement its so-called Dual Circulation Strategy (DCS). The main idea behind this strategy is to strengthen China\u2019s vast domestic market (\u2018domestic circulation\u2019), while balancing its foreign trade (\u2018external circulation<\/a>\u2019).<\/p>\n