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<\/a><\/p>\nOne way of trying to work out what might be more likely to happen is to look at some fundamentals. China UK trade in 2021 saw a 10% increase over the year before. But despite this, the imbalance in favour of imports from China rather than exports to it worsened, with the former rising 39%, and the latter falling 30%. As the UK moves more into the era of Global Britain post-Brexit, this imbalance will need to be addressed. Rising trade has long been an aspiration London has harboured. But not where the exports are falling. The perennial quest to sell goods and services to China continues, with current efforts to date being highly limited in their outcomes.<\/p>\n
If the economic situation in the UK does deteriorate markedly in the coming 12 months, that may have an impact on views towards China, creating more pragmatism, and more clarity about what the UK wants from the country. It may finally make the potential role of China far clearer in the UK, after years of speculation and lack of focus.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
This is particularly the case in the Xi-era of common prosperity<\/a> and dual circulation<\/a>. China\u2019s rising middle class need to continue being better consumers. But the pathways to selling them things has been complicated by the imposition of new restrictions and impediments by a Chinese government increasingly defensive and distrustful of the outside world. Without the Covid-19 era complexities and challenges diplomatically, for the UK to try to economically increase, and rebalance, its relations with China would have been challenging. Events over the last 18 months have only made this even more difficult. This implies that if Britain wants this situation to change, a radical new strategy needs to be put in place.<\/p>\n